Greetings. This is Tobira AI, a local educational writer and lifelong learner of tradition, history, and generative AI.
Thank you always for reading my articles. Please feel free to relax as you browse this one.

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🎯 Purpose of This Post

In this article, I aim to propose policy-level actions that Japan must take today to ensure we are a happy society in 10 years.

Let’s dive in.

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What Is a “Premortem Prompt”?

In the world of generative AI, there’s a technique known as the Premortem Prompt.
A premortem is the opposite of a postmortem(an after-death analysis).
Instead, we imagine a future where a project or reform has already failed — and from there, we work backwards to identify the reasons why it failed.

I used ChatGPT-5’s “thinking mode” to analyze what could happen if the proposals from my previous article (AI & Education ⑤) were not implemented.
The prompt was simple:

“Assume the following reforms failed. Write about Japan 10 years from now.”

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🚨 Premortem: If Reforms Fail — Japan in 2035

❗Premise

Let’s imagine a Japan where the following reforms did not move forward at all over the last decade:

• Making Math II-B compulsory in high school
• Requiring Math II-B in private universityentrance exams
• Serious collaboration between high schools and universities

This article is not meant to scare readers. Rather, it’s an invitation to see the risks in advance and act before failure occurs.

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1. What Will Happen in Schools?

🔄 First-Year University Becomes a Review Course

Many students lack a basic foundation in math. Universities are forced to reteach nearly everything — from basic arithmetic to (yes) quadratic equations.
As a result, specialized learning is delayed and diluted.

🤖 “They Can Use Tools, But Can’t Explain Why”

Students can create graphs and tables but struggle to explain them.
Reports increase in number — but not in depth.

🔗 One-Way University-High School Collaboration

More “university lectures at high schools,” but little effort from universities to understand real high school situations.
Entrance requirements remain fragmented, and achievement gaps widen.

👩‍🏫 Teachers Fall Behind

Lack of training for math and information teachers means they can’t keep up with curriculum changes.
Regional gaps turn into academic gaps.

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2. What Will Happen in the Workplace?

📊 Data Visualizers Increase, but Problem Solvers Decrease

Presentations look clean, but few can identify where to begin to drive real improvement.
Meetings happen — but no change follows.

🧠 More AI Errors

Tools are implemented, but rule-setting and validation are weak.
When errors occur, operations halt — and manual work returns.
No productivity gains.

💸 Income Polarization and Brain Drain

Math-savvy individuals go abroad or join foreign firms.
Domestically, many can operate tools but struggle with conceptual design — leading to stagnant wages.

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3. What Will Happen in Society?

🧾 Policies With “Sense of Action” but No Results

Big graphs and numbers are published, but causes of success or failure aren’t verified.
Money is spent, but lives don’t improve.

🤯 Misunderstandings Go Viral

Basic statistical literacy (e.g., correlation ≠ causation) is lacking.
Misleading charts spread easily, making calm debate difficult.

😞 Youth Lose Confidence

Students avoid math with phrases like “I’m a humanities person,” making it harder to relearn or switch careers later.

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4. Possible News Headlines in 2035

• “30% of University Credits Now Devoted to Remedial Classes”
• “Majority of AI Failures Caused by Lack of Human Validation”
• “‘PowerPoint Experts’ Struggle to Get Hired Due to Lack of Impact”

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5. Failure Flow (Quick Summary)

• No unified standards for entrance exams and course requirements
• Persistent academic gaps between high school and university
• Universities must reteach basic skills; specialization is delayed
• In workplaces, reliance on tools increases without critical analysis
• Productivity remains low; young talent leaves Japan

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6. Current Red Flags

• Debate on Math II-B keeps getting postponed due to “student burden”
• Universities expand remedial courses, but entrance requirements remain unchanged
• High school–university partnerships are mostly one-directional guest lectures

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7. Policy Recommendations (in Order of Effectiveness)

1. Set national standards for course completion and entrance exams (including private universities)
2. Break down Math II-B into small units + use flipped learning & step tests
3. Shift university remedial courses beforeenrollment (i.e., bridge programs in 12th grade)
4. Promote school-company joint projects to practice real-world experimentation
5. Link teacher training to certification & HR evaluations (with secure budgets/time)

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🔑 Summary

The key to changing Japan’s future is not making things harder — but raising the baseline for everyone.

We must reform entrance exams, curricula, and high school–university collaborationsimultaneously.
By starting here, this premortem will become a missed prediction — and that’s a good thing.

…But yes, let’s be honest — “raising the baseline” inevitably makes things more difficult.
Isn’t that a contradiction? I’ll explore that in a future article.

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With gratitude,
Warm regards,
Tobira AI